NEW YORK (Reuters) – Private-sector economists believe the U.S. economy fell into recession last spring and now expect a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of this year after slashing their forecasts for gross domestic product, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.

The bank’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also predicted non-farm payrolls would shrink by an average 222,400 per month during the last quarter of the year, nearly five times the pace of monthly job losses forecast when the previous survey was taken in August. The previous estimate was for 45,400 jobs lost per month in the quarter.

The forecasters survey also said the U.S. economy entered recession April and that the downturn would last for 14 months.

Words byLynn Berry

WASHINGTON — The Dmitry Medvedev that made his first appearance in the U.S. capital as Russia’s president was not the same man Russians usually see at home.

He was confident, even charming, in reaching out Saturday in a spirit of cooperation to the incoming administration of Barack Obama.

He showed none of the bluster and tough talk that he has adopted in recent months in an awkward imitation of Vladimir Putin, his predecessor and mentor who still leads the country as prime minister.

Putin’s choice of Medvedev to succeed him earlier this year was seen as an effort to re-brand Russia, to improve its relations with the West and Western investors.

But the August war with Georgia, a former Soviet republic that has allied itself with Washington, led to a change in course. Medvedev quickly began to sound like Putin in casting the West as the aggressor.

The Nov. 4 election of Obama seemed to offer an opportunity for Russia and the United States to make a fresh start. But instead of welcoming Obama’s election, Medvedev issued a challenge.

In a Nov. 5 speech, he warned that Russia would move short-range missiles to NATO’s borders to “neutralize” a planned U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe if necessary.

Medvedev has since backed off slightly. He stressed Saturday that Russia would not act unless the United States took the first step and expressed hope that the new U.S. administration will be open to negotiations.
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Medvedev said there is a lack of trust between Russia and the United States, but it is “in our power” to create a partnership.

He called for talks with Obama as soon as possible after he becomes president Jan. 20 and suggested that missile defense would be a good place to start.

“I hope that the new president, the new administration will have a desire to discuss this,” Medvedev told members of the Council on Foreign Relations. “At least the first signals that we have received indicate that our new partners are thinking about the problems and do not simply plan to rubber stamp the plans.”

The Russian president, who was in Washington for the global financial summit, gave a short speech and then settled into an armchair next to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to continue the discussion with her. The choice of Albright carried additional significance since she acted as a surrogate for Obama at the summit.

The planned missile defense system was championed by the Bush administration as necessary to protect Europe from Iran. Russia, however, sees it as a Cold War-style project that could weaken its nuclear deterrent.

Obama has not been explicit about his intentions, saying it would be prudent to “explore the possibility” but expressing some skepticism about the technical capability of U.S. missile defenses.

Andrew Pierre, a diplomatic scholar at Georgetown University, said Medvedev could find a receptive audience in the new administration.

“What his task is going to be is to persuade the new American administration that Russians have legitimate concerns,” Pierre said.

He said for most of the U.S. foreign policy community, missile defense is not the most important issue in relations with Russia.

“It certainly isn’t worth the political result that it leads to, given that for us it’s tangential but for the Russians it’s core. It’s on their borders,” Pierre said.

Medvedev said his Nov. 5 speech _ his first state of the nation address _ was not “blackmail” intended to pressure the new president-elect.

He had postponed the address twice, which he said Saturday was because he was unhappy with the material that had been prepared. When he finally set the date, he said he forgot about the U.S. election. “It was nothing personal,” he said.

Compiled by Drones216

Who is Valerie Jarrett?

Valerie Jarrett is “the fixer”; her latest assignment was to smooth all rough patches out of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Jarrett was an early and influential Obama-backer and remains extremely loyal to him. She has been in politics much of her adult life–running various top agencies for Mayor Richard M. Daley. Moreover, she’s made her mark in the private sector, where she’s currently CEO of real estate developer The Habitat Co. and is highly-regarded within Chicago’s political and corporate circles. It is impressive enough to be known for solutions in Chicago politics, but is also a close friend and confidant of Obama and his wife Michelle. Her background is almost a week of study from African American history 101.

Ms. Jarrett was born in Shiraz, Iran, in 1956, and educated at a New England prep school. But while Mr. Obama was once an outsider in Chicago’s black community, Ms. Jarrett was a member of its royalty. Her great-grandfather was the first African-American to graduate from M.I.T., her grandfather was the first black man to head the Chicago Housing Authority, and her father was the first black resident at St. Luke’s Hospital. Though Ms. Jarrett has never worked in Washington, her great-uncle is Vernon Jordan, the well-known Democratic power broker.

She graduated from Northfield Mount Hermon, a New England boarding school, in 1974. She also received a B.A. in Psychology from Stanford University in 1978, and a JD from the University of Michigan Law School in 1981.

Jarret got her start in Chicago politics in 1987 working for Mayor Harold Washington as Deputy Corporation Counsel for Finance and Development. Jarret continued to work in the mayor’s office in the 1990s. She was Deputy Chief of Staff for Mayor Richard Daley, during which time (1991) she hired Michelle Robinson, then engaged to Barack Obama, away from a private law firm. Jarret served as Commissioner of the Department of Planning and Development from 1992 through 1995; and was Chair of the Chicago Transit Board from 1995 to 2005.

Now with the resume given a look over, it has been reported she will not take Obama’s US Senate Seat. But will be joining President Elect Obama in his cabinet. So with Jarrett out of the running for the seat, who will it be?

Although President Elect Obama cannot name his replacement, under state law, Gov. Rod Blagojevich must name someone to serve Obama’s remaining term. Other names that have surfaced include: U.S. Rep Jesse Jackson Jr., State Treasurer and Obama buddy Alexi Giannoulias, Tammy Duckworth, director of the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Jarrett would be Jr. Senator with the greatest personal connection to the President; she could really flourish in this Democratic environment over the next four years.

UPDATE: From The Huffington Post

President-elect Barack Obama has formally named his friend Valerie Jarrett to be a senior adviser in the White House. Her official title will be “senior advisor and assistant to the President for Inter-government relations and Public Liaison in the Obama White House,” according to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet.

Jarrett is a co-chair of Obama’s transition team and was a top advisor to him during the presidential campaign.

From Lynn Sweet’s report:

Jarrett, 51, a Hyde Park resident, is a veteran of Chicago’s City Hall who went on to become the CEO of The Habitat Company, a major Chicago real estate firm as well as serving on a variety of civic and corporate boards. [...] Joining the campaign while still juggling her Habitat duties, Jarrett functioned as a friend–dining with Obama and other pals before a debate–as a top surrogate for the fund-raising drive–and as an advisor, often with Obama on the campaign plane.

Jarrett’s White House role may be similar to the one played by Karen Hughes in President Bush’s first term, the Washington Post speculates, “providing political advice while keeping him grounded.”