November 21, 2008
Categories: Uncategorized . Tags: G8 Summit, George Bush, Young Turks . Author: turbocratic . Comments: Leave a Comment
U.S. recession will last 14 months says Fed survey
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Private-sector economists believe the U.S. economy fell into recession last spring and now expect a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of this year after slashing their forecasts for gross domestic product, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.
The bank’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also predicted non-farm payrolls would shrink by an average 222,400 per month during the last quarter of the year, nearly five times the pace of monthly job losses forecast when the previous survey was taken in August. The previous estimate was for 45,400 jobs lost per month in the quarter.
The forecasters survey also said the U.S. economy entered recession April and that the downturn would last for 14 months.
Russian President Calls For Talks With Barack Obama
Words byLynn Berry
WASHINGTON — The Dmitry Medvedev that made his first appearance in the U.S. capital as Russia’s president was not the same man Russians usually see at home.
He was confident, even charming, in reaching out Saturday in a spirit of cooperation to the incoming administration of Barack Obama.
He showed none of the bluster and tough talk that he has adopted in recent months in an awkward imitation of Vladimir Putin, his predecessor and mentor who still leads the country as prime minister.
Putin’s choice of Medvedev to succeed him earlier this year was seen as an effort to re-brand Russia, to improve its relations with the West and Western investors.
But the August war with Georgia, a former Soviet republic that has allied itself with Washington, led to a change in course. Medvedev quickly began to sound like Putin in casting the West as the aggressor.
The Nov. 4 election of Obama seemed to offer an opportunity for Russia and the United States to make a fresh start. But instead of welcoming Obama’s election, Medvedev issued a challenge.
In a Nov. 5 speech, he warned that Russia would move short-range missiles to NATO’s borders to “neutralize” a planned U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe if necessary.
Medvedev has since backed off slightly. He stressed Saturday that Russia would not act unless the United States took the first step and expressed hope that the new U.S. administration will be open to negotiations.
Story continues below
Medvedev said there is a lack of trust between Russia and the United States, but it is “in our power” to create a partnership.
He called for talks with Obama as soon as possible after he becomes president Jan. 20 and suggested that missile defense would be a good place to start.
“I hope that the new president, the new administration will have a desire to discuss this,” Medvedev told members of the Council on Foreign Relations. “At least the first signals that we have received indicate that our new partners are thinking about the problems and do not simply plan to rubber stamp the plans.”
The Russian president, who was in Washington for the global financial summit, gave a short speech and then settled into an armchair next to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to continue the discussion with her. The choice of Albright carried additional significance since she acted as a surrogate for Obama at the summit.
The planned missile defense system was championed by the Bush administration as necessary to protect Europe from Iran. Russia, however, sees it as a Cold War-style project that could weaken its nuclear deterrent.
Obama has not been explicit about his intentions, saying it would be prudent to “explore the possibility” but expressing some skepticism about the technical capability of U.S. missile defenses.
Andrew Pierre, a diplomatic scholar at Georgetown University, said Medvedev could find a receptive audience in the new administration.
“What his task is going to be is to persuade the new American administration that Russians have legitimate concerns,” Pierre said.
He said for most of the U.S. foreign policy community, missile defense is not the most important issue in relations with Russia.
“It certainly isn’t worth the political result that it leads to, given that for us it’s tangential but for the Russians it’s core. It’s on their borders,” Pierre said.
Medvedev said his Nov. 5 speech _ his first state of the nation address _ was not “blackmail” intended to pressure the new president-elect.
He had postponed the address twice, which he said Saturday was because he was unhappy with the material that had been prepared. When he finally set the date, he said he forgot about the U.S. election. “It was nothing personal,” he said.
The Female Michael Clayton: Barack Obama Names Valerie Jarrett Senior Whitehouse Advisor
Compiled by Drones216
Who is Valerie Jarrett?
Valerie Jarrett is “the fixer”; her latest assignment was to smooth all rough patches out of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Jarrett was an early and influential Obama-backer and remains extremely loyal to him. She has been in politics much of her adult life–running various top agencies for Mayor Richard M. Daley. Moreover, she’s made her mark in the private sector, where she’s currently CEO of real estate developer The Habitat Co. and is highly-regarded within Chicago’s political and corporate circles. It is impressive enough to be known for solutions in Chicago politics, but is also a close friend and confidant of Obama and his wife Michelle. Her background is almost a week of study from African American history 101.
Ms. Jarrett was born in Shiraz, Iran, in 1956, and educated at a New England prep school. But while Mr. Obama was once an outsider in Chicago’s black community, Ms. Jarrett was a member of its royalty. Her great-grandfather was the first African-American to graduate from M.I.T., her grandfather was the first black man to head the Chicago Housing Authority, and her father was the first black resident at St. Luke’s Hospital. Though Ms. Jarrett has never worked in Washington, her great-uncle is Vernon Jordan, the well-known Democratic power broker.
She graduated from Northfield Mount Hermon, a New England boarding school, in 1974. She also received a B.A. in Psychology from Stanford University in 1978, and a JD from the University of Michigan Law School in 1981.
Jarret got her start in Chicago politics in 1987 working for Mayor Harold Washington as Deputy Corporation Counsel for Finance and Development. Jarret continued to work in the mayor’s office in the 1990s. She was Deputy Chief of Staff for Mayor Richard Daley, during which time (1991) she hired Michelle Robinson, then engaged to Barack Obama, away from a private law firm. Jarret served as Commissioner of the Department of Planning and Development from 1992 through 1995; and was Chair of the Chicago Transit Board from 1995 to 2005.
Now with the resume given a look over, it has been reported she will not take Obama’s US Senate Seat. But will be joining President Elect Obama in his cabinet. So with Jarrett out of the running for the seat, who will it be?
Although President Elect Obama cannot name his replacement, under state law, Gov. Rod Blagojevich must name someone to serve Obama’s remaining term. Other names that have surfaced include: U.S. Rep Jesse Jackson Jr., State Treasurer and Obama buddy Alexi Giannoulias, Tammy Duckworth, director of the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Jarrett would be Jr. Senator with the greatest personal connection to the President; she could really flourish in this Democratic environment over the next four years.
UPDATE: From The Huffington Post
President-elect Barack Obama has formally named his friend Valerie Jarrett to be a senior adviser in the White House. Her official title will be “senior advisor and assistant to the President for Inter-government relations and Public Liaison in the Obama White House,” according to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet.
Jarrett is a co-chair of Obama’s transition team and was a top advisor to him during the presidential campaign.
From Lynn Sweet’s report:
Jarrett, 51, a Hyde Park resident, is a veteran of Chicago’s City Hall who went on to become the CEO of The Habitat Company, a major Chicago real estate firm as well as serving on a variety of civic and corporate boards. [...] Joining the campaign while still juggling her Habitat duties, Jarrett functioned as a friend–dining with Obama and other pals before a debate–as a top surrogate for the fund-raising drive–and as an advisor, often with Obama on the campaign plane.
Jarrett’s White House role may be similar to the one played by Karen Hughes in President Bush’s first term, the Washington Post speculates, “providing political advice while keeping him grounded.”
Capri Cafaro chosen to lead Ohio Senate Democrats
Words by Aaron Marshall/Plain Dealer Columbus Bureau
COLUMBUS — Two years after being appointed to the Ohio Senate, Capri Cafaro was chosen to head the 12-member Senate Democratic caucus for the 128th General Assembly.
Cafaro’s elevation to the top spot came after current Senate Democratic leader Columbus Sen. Ray Miller chose not to run for the post.
Cafaro, a 30-year-old Hubbard Democrat, beat back a challenge from Dayton-area Sen. Tom Roberts to be named leader of the Democrats, who are vastly outnumbered 21-12 by Senate Republicans.
“I think our caucus was looking for something completely different and new and a creative approach to both policy governance as well as a political sea change as far as our branding is concerned,” said Cafaro, who had been serving as assistant minority whip.
The daughter of wealthy Youngstown shopping center developer J.J. Cafaro, the Democrats’ new leader will have her hands full trying to transform a caucus that has been dysfunctional and fractured in recent years.
Cafaro said the caucus needs to “turn over a new leaf” and spoke about the need for a more organized campaign model, including training sessions for both candidates and staffers. She was not opposed this November for her senate seat.
She twice previously lost campaigns for Congressional seats in Northeast Ohio.
Sen. Shirley Smith, a Cleveland Democrat, was named assistant minority leader, while Miller was selected as the minority whip, the number three post.
Rounding out the leadership ticket, Columbiana Sen. James Wilson will serve as assistant minority whip.
Miller has been dogged in recent months by ethical questions surrounding his campaign finance reports, which included more than $34,000 in expenses that are being questioned by Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.
Cafaro said “it was the will” of the 12 members to keep Miller in leadership.
“It was not my unilateral decision to make,” she said. “That is what happens when you don’t create a slate.”
Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State?
There are numerous reports tonight that Hillary Clinton may be under consideration for Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
From the Washington Post:
There’s increasing chatter in political circles that the Obama camp is not overly happy with the usual suspects for secretary of state these days and that the field might be expanding somewhat beyond Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and maybe former Democratic senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.
There’s talk, indeed, that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) may now be under consideration for the post. Her office referred any questions to the Obama transition; Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor declined to comment.
And NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports:
Two Obama advisers have told NBC News that Hillary Clinton is under consideration to be secretary of state. Would she be interested? Those who know Clinton say possibly. But her office says that any decisions about the transition are up to the president-elect and his team.
Clinton was seen taking a flight to Chicago today, but an adviser says it was on personal business. It is unknown whether she had any meeting or conversation with Obama while there.
According to CNN:
One source close to Hillary Clinton tells CNN that as of early yesterday, Senator Clinton had not been contacted by the transition team about a possible cabinet appointment. This same source tells CNN that Senator Clinton would not necessarily dismiss such an offer.
A spokesman for Hillary Clinton, Philippe Reines, tells CNN “Any speculation about cabinet or other administration appointments is really for President-Elect Obama’s transition team to address.”
On Monday night, while walking into an awards ceremony in New York, Senator Clinton was asked if she would consider taking a post in the Obama administration. She replied, “I am happy being a Senator from New York, I love this state and this city. I am looking at the long list of things I have to catch up on and do. But I want to be a good partner and I want to do everything I can to make sure his agenda is going to be successful.”
And sources tell ABC News that discussions about Clinton being asked to accept the post are “very serious.”
Free the GOP
The Party Won’t Win Back the Middle as Long As It’s Hostage to Social Fundamentalists
Words by Christine Todd Whitman and Robert M. Bostock
Four years ago, in the week after the 2004 presidential election, we were working furiously to put the finishing touches on the book we co-authored, “It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America.”
Our central thesis was simple: The Republican Party had been taken hostage by “social fundamentalists,” the people who base their votes on such social issues as abortion, gay rights and stem cell research. Unless the GOP freed itself from their grip, we argued, it would so alienate itself from the broad center of the American electorate that it would become increasingly marginalized and find itself out of power.
At the time, this idea was roundly attacked by many who were convinced that holding on to the “base” at all costs was the way to go. A former speechwriter for President Bush, Matthew Scully, who went on to work for the McCain campaign this year, called the book “airy blather” and said its argument fell somewhere between “insufferable snobbery” and “complete cluelessness.” Gary Bauer suggested that the book sounded as if it came from a “Michael Moore radical.” National Review said its warnings were, “at best, counterintuitive,” and Ann Coulter said the book was “based on conventional wisdom that is now known to be false.”
What a difference four years makes — and the data show it.
While a host of issues were at play in this election, the primary reason John McCain lost was the substantial erosion of support from self-identified moderates compared with four years ago. In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry held just a nine-percentage-point margin among moderate voters over President Bush. This year, the spread between Barack Obama and McCain was 21 points among this group. The net difference between the two elections is a deficit of nearly 6.4 million moderate votes for the Republicans in 2008.
In seven of the nine states that switched this year from Republican to Democratic, Obama’s vote total exceeded the total won by President Bush four years ago. So even if McCain had equaled the president’s numbers from 2004 (and he did not), he still would have lost in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia (81 total electoral votes) — and lost the election. McCain didn’t lose those states because he failed to hold the base. He lost them because Obama broadened his base.
Nor did the Republican ticket lose because “values voters” stayed home. On the contrary, according to exit polls, such voters made up a larger proportion of the electorate this year than in 2004 — 26 percent, up from 23 percent. Extrapolating from those data, McCain actually won more votes from self-identified white evangelical/born-again voters than Bush did four years ago — 1.8 million more. But that was not enough to offset the loss of so many moderates.
Following the conventional wisdom of the past two presidential elections, McCain tried mightily to assuage the Republican Party’s social-fundamentalist wing. His selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whose social views are entirely aligned with that wing, as his running mate was clearly meant to demonstrate his commitment to that bloc. Yet while his choice did comfort those voters, it made many others uncomfortable.
Palin has many attractive qualities as a candidate. Being prepared to become president at a moment’s notice was not obviously among them this year. Her selection cost the ticket support among those moderate voters who saw it as a cynical sop to social fundamentalists, reinforcing the impression that they control the party, with the party’s consent.
In the wake of the Democrats’ landslide victory, and despite all evidence to the contrary, many in the GOP are arguing that John McCain was defeated because the social fundamentalists wouldn’t support him. They seem to be suffering from a political strain of Stockholm syndrome. They are identifying with the interests of their political captors and ignoring the views of the larger electorate. This has cost the Republican Party the votes of millions of people who don’t find a willingness to acquiesce to hostage-takers a positive trait in potential leaders.
Unless the Republican Party ends its self-imposed captivity to social fundamentalists, it will spend a long time in the political wilderness. On Nov. 4, the American people very clearly rejected the politics of demonization and division. It’s long past time for the GOP to do the same.
Christine Todd Whitman, who served as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency from 2001 to 2003, is co-chair of the Republican Leadership Council. Robert M. Bostock, a freelance speechwriter, was her co-author for the book “It’s My Party Too.”
How To Be A Republican After November, 4th, 2008 (Holier Than Thou v1.0)
Words by THENIMROD
I’ve been getting a lot of sarcastic quips from liberal friends and foes over the last – oh – 3 days or so. Lots of taunting over Obama’s win, lots of jabs about how pissed off I must be about it. One guy said, “You lost!” Another asked me if I am moving to Canada.
I’ve also been hearing a lot of anger from fellow Conservatives. One woman said she would be in a state of depression for at least a week. Lots of hatred flying in Obama’s direction.
Now, by no means do I believe that these attitudes typify either party in general. However, I have one thing to say to both groups: WAKE UP.
To boasting liberals: This isn’t football. Your team did not just beat mine. Yes, I was upset when McCain lost. Yes, you have the right to be excited and to celebrate. Do I mind the chiding about it? No. God knows I’ve given libs a hard time after Republican wins. What bothers me is the “You Lost! Are you moving to Canada!?” attitude. These are the same people who said after the 2000 and 2004 elections, “George W. Bush is not my President.” They expect me to react the same way they did. They expect me to hate Barack Obama. They expect me to spend the next 4 to 8 years bashing the man into the ground because he is from the other party or because he can’t stop saying “Um” and “You know…” Well I’m not. I’m going to take a page out of the books of many 2000-2008 Democrats. I’m going to get behind my new President. I’m going to disagree with him on MANY things, and I will speak and fight against many things he and Congress try to do. But whatever I do, I will think of my country first.
To bitter Conservatives: GROW UP. This isn’t football. Our team did not just lose to theirs. It’s okay to be upset. But it’s not okay to hate our President Elect. It does no one any good to hope that he fails. Many liberals made that mistake 8 years ago. They put party before country. Unfortunately George W. Bush wasn’t the only one that paid for it. Put your country first and get behind your President. There’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with him. There’s no doubt that we will. There is something wrong with opposing him just for the sake of opposing him. Ask yourself how you feel about FDR, and whether or not you would have agreed with everything he did while in office.
Bottom line: This is not football. One team did not just beat the other. Together, WE ALL just elected the captain of OUR team. The thought of one day sitting with my grandchildren telling them what a great President Barack Obama was doesn’t bother me at all. My country is more important to me than my party.
IMTHENIMROD
November 13, 2008
Categories: Uncategorized . Tags: Barack Obama, Commentary, Conservatives, Election '08, GOP, John McCain, Politics, Republicans . Author: turbocratic . Comments: 1 Comment